LLY

Historical Beat Rate and Post-Earnings Drift

Over the last eight reported quarters, Eli Lilly (LLY) has beaten the published earnings estimate seven times, giving it an 88% beat rate. The average earnings surprise across those reports is 13.4%, well above the typical margin of error priced into a consensus estimate. The average five-day price move in the five trading days after each report is 3.46%, classified as an “up” drift.

But the headline numbers do not tell the whole story. In the most recent four quarters, every result was a beat, yet the next-day reactions were mixed. On April 30, 2026, LLY reported $8.55 versus a $6.97 estimate, a 22.7% surprise, and the stock rose 3.07% the next session and 4.32% over the following five days. On February 4, 2026, the company reported $7.54 versus $6.91, a 9.1% beat, yet the stock fell 7.79% the next day and 8.3% over five days. On October 30, 2025, LLY printed $7.02 against $5.69, a 23.4% surprise, rising 2.17% the next day and 11.01% over five days. Finally, on August 7, 2025, EPS of $6.31 beat the $5.60 estimate by 12.7%, but the stock dropped 2.37% the next day before recovering to a 6.8% gain over five sessions.

Options-Flow Dynamics Around the Aug. 5 Print

LLY’s next scheduled earnings release is August 5, 2026, before the open, with the published consensus EPS estimate at $6.06. Because the trailing average surprise is 13.4%, the options market often prices in event risk that is larger than the headline consensus move would suggest. That means the unofficial consensus—the positioning seen in calls, puts, and implied volatility—can be just as important as the published number.

Into the print, implied volatility typically expands as traders pay up for event exposure, then collapses once the results are out. Right now, the stock is trading at $1,118.28, below its 50-day EMA of $1,137.31, with an RSI of 40.8. That combination points to a short-term setup that is neither obviously oversold nor strongly trending. In the options flow, watch whether demand is concentrated in directional call or put structures, how wide the straddle is pricing the expected one-day move, and whether that implied move is larger or smaller than the historical post-earning five-day drift of 3.46%.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

Given the historical pattern, a disciplined trader is not just watching whether LLY beats the $6.06 estimate; they are comparing the options-implied move with the realized moves already on the table. The last four next-day reactions range from a 7.79% drop to a 3.07% gain, so the first-session move can be sharp in either direction. The more useful comparison may be the five-day window, where the average tilt is 3.46% up but individual outcomes have swung from minus 8.3% to plus 11.01%.

Key reference levels include the 50-day EMA at $1,137.31 and the current price of $1,118.28. A post-earnings reversal above or failure below that moving average can be a technical marker of whether short-term sentiment is shifting. Traders also watch whether a headline beat is followed by guidance that supports the move, because the February 2026 result showed that a 9.1% beat was not enough to prevent a sharp selloff. Finally, because the company operates in the Healthcare/Drug Manufacturers - General sector, product-specific commentary and pipeline updates can override the EPS surprise itself.

For a deeper dive into how institutional models are positioned for LLY ahead of the August 5 report, including broader consensus and flow context, see the full institutional verdict on the ticker page.